A Bayes’ Theorem Tutorial

BRIAN RUSSELL VICE-PRESIDENT, GEOSOFTWARE. BRIAN.RUSSELL@GEOSOFTWARE.COM   Introduction This tutorial is intended to illustrate the power of Bayes’ theorem using a straightforward seismic exploration example. This example will show how to evaluate the effectiveness of combining AVO attribute analysis with drilling results. As a tutorial, it is like many others used in the explanation of Bayes’ theorem, but instead of using examples like apples and oranges or white and black balls, I will use terminology that you can relate to as exploration geoscientists. Even with this relatively simple example, you will find Bayes’ theorem is not an easy concept to understand, [...]